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Market Edge

Convertibles: The Final Frontier (April 2014)
Aviva Investors research demonstrates that convertibles continue to dominate the efficient frontier when it comes to portfolio construction.

The Euro Zone: Battling the Threat of Deflation (March 2014)
Is deflation coming to the euro zone?

UK Real Estate Debt Market's Recovery Continues (February 2014)
We expect real estate debt conditions to improve further, but risks remain, says Richard Levis, Global Real Estate Analyst.

Broad Based Upswing in UK Real Estate Under Way (February 2014)
UK real estate expected to deliver double-digit returns again in 2014, says Chris Urwin, Global Research Manager, Real Estate.

Multi-Asset Solutions Outlook and Positioning (February 2014)
Global equities have been struggling since the start of the year with emerging markets hit hardest. The decline in emerging markets has not been confined to equities with bonds and currencies also under pressure - the Argentinean peso, South African rand and Turkish lira were particularly badly affected. The Turkish central bank took aggressive measures to support the lira by nearly doubling policy rates, but without much success.

Fixed Income Review and Outlook Q4 2013
2014 promises to be another tough year for international bond markets as global economic activity continues to strengthen, causing investors to question the pace at which leading central banks withdraw the unprecedented monetary stimulus of recent years.

Irish Real Estate Recovery: Strong Comeback (January 2014)
The strong recovery seen in Ireland’s commercial real estate market last year is expected to generate further momentum in 2014. The economy is set for expansion, real estate investment volumes have been strengthening and the occupier market recovery has been more robust than previously anticipated.

Tales of Technology and Imagination (January 2014)
The importance of investing in companies that have successfully embraced technology is growing, says Trevor Green, Manager of the Aviva Investors UK Opportunities Fund.

US real estate growing optimism (January 2014)
Second-tier cities look most attractive as economic and real estate conditions continue to strengthen, says Darren Sriharan, Global Real Estate Analyst.

Credit Review and Outlook 2014
2013 proved to be another favourable year for credit which displayed surprising resilience in the face of a number of sovereign issues such as the Cypriot banking crisis, Italian politics and more recently the Fed tapering and broader fscal debate in the US, just to name a few.

Global Convertables 2014 Outlook
After another highly rewarding year for convertibles investors, the bottom line looks to have changed little when we look out towards 2014. Return prospects remain solid for both long-only and absolute return convertible strategies.

Multi-asset Monthly Outlook (December2013)
Nahed Ennasr of the strategy team highlights our belief that this year’s bull-market trend in many equity markets is set to continue into 2014, supported by loose monetary policy and a strengthening global economy. With valuations decent, our multi-asset portfolios remain moderately overweight equities.

European Prime Markets Continue to Make Ground (November 2013)
According to Chris Urwin, Global Research Manager Real Estate, the third quarter was another robust period for European real estate with buoyant transaction volumes and prime pricing advancing in several core markets. In all, the period saw total Europe ex UK transactions of c€21.4 billion, a rise of over 20 per cent on a year ago. Although the bulk of activity remains concentrated on the core markets of France and Germany where transaction volumes rose over the quarter, says Urwin, there are also signs of improvement in Europe’s periphery.

UK Inflation Report (November 2013)
The Bank of England wants us to believe monetary stimulus is here to stay despite the strengthening economy. Investors may not be convinced.

Why invest in Emerging Market Small Cap Equities? (November 2013)
Emerging equity markets have developed considerably over the past 20 years.

A firmer footing (November 2013)
In this market edge, Chris Urwin explains why the pace of the UK property market’s recovery has accelerated significantly and why we expect higher-yielding sectors to outperform over the medium term.

Emerging Market Debt: Opportunities in Corporate Bonds (October 2013)
A focus on fundamental credit quality offers attractive long-term returns for investors in emerging market corporate bonds.

Multi-asset Monthly Outlook (October 2013)
Nahed Ennasr of the strategy team highlights this year’s continuing bull-market trend in many equity markets, aided by the US central bank’s surprise decision in September not to commence reducing its bond-purchase programme.

A passing of the buck? (October 2013)
The EU is proposing changes to the rules governing how money market funds are run. Here, fund manager Matthew Tatnell explains why these changes could have major consequences for the industry.

Storm in a Teacup (October 2013)
As the US shutdown begins, David Hillier discusses what impact it could have on the US economy and asset prices.

US Real Estate Broadening out (September 2013)
The US economy continues to gain momentum which should see the real estate recovery to spread from prime assets to secondary ones and see higher risk strategies well rewarded. Aviva Investors’ Darren Sriharan shares his latest views on US real estate.

Coming of age: asia’s corporate high yield bond market (September 2013)
Regulatory and cultural changes have triggered tremendous growth in Asia’s bond markets. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the corporate high yield sector, which now offers outstanding credit quality and compelling valuations thanks to the latest bout of investor risk-aversion.

US Real Estate Outlook (August 2013)
As the US economy gains momentum, the real estate recovery is broadening out to second-tier cities, says Darren Sriharan, Global Real Estate Analyst

Global real Estate Outlook (August 2013)
With good-quality real estate looking relatively cheap, now is the time for investors to consider selectively taking on greater risk, says Chris Urwin, Global Research Manager - Real Estate.

Fixed Income Review and Outlook Q2 2013
May 2013 may go down in history as the beginning of the end for the largest financial experiment of all time. Ben Bernanke’s desire to lay out a framework for the withdrawal of monetary stimulus had unexpectedly severe consequences for holders of risk assets, and was quickly followed up by statements stating that a rise in official interest rates remains distant. Nevertheless, economic momentum continues to grow steadily and interest rate expectations will move accordingly.

Emerging Markets Bonds: Caught in the Crossfire (July 2013)
June was a difficult month for emerging market bond investors, but the global unwinding of the carry trade has left valuations looking far more attractive.

Life and Death on the High Street: The outlook for in-town retail real estate (July 2013)
Many of the UK’s town and city centres are suffering as the tightest squeeze on household finances for a generation coincides with the rise of online and out-of-town shopping. However, we believe the widespread gloomy prognostications for the future of in-town shopping are overly pessimistic. Not all town centres are in decline, and in the years ahead there will be winners and losers as the physical retail landscape continues to evolve.

With careful stock selection and the application of high-quality asset management we believe investors in in-town retail real estate can be more than adequately compensated for the risks taken.

The Case for Emerging Market Inflation-Linked Bonds (July 2013)
The latest in our new series of The Case for… documents which makes a compelling argument for emerging market inflation-linked bonds. As Anne-Sophie Girault and Thomas Williams explain, recent years have witnessed a transformation in both the scale and liquidity of the emerging inflation-linked bond markets. This in turn has greatly increased the opportunity set in a segment that boasts the highest credit quality of all emerging market bonds.

Multi-asset Monthly Outlook (May 2013)
Nick Samouilhan and team highlights that risk assets remain buoyed by abundant liquidity conditions around the world. Despite mixed macroeconomic data and recent rally in risk assets, our portfolios maintain a pro-risk stance, though we are cautious of the near-term outlook for markets.

European Real Estate Market Outlook: Investment activity picks up in core and peripheral Europe (June 2013)
Darren Sriharan - Global Real Estate Analyst writes investment activity in Europe rose a robust 13 per cent in Q1 2013 in year-on-year terms, despite weak economic fundamentals and struggling occupier markets. With bond yields likely to remain near historic lows for some time, the relative pricing of prime European real estate appears favourable.

Asia-Pacific Real Estate Outlook (May 2013)
Elysia Tse, SVP - Real Estate Investment Governance, Strategy & Research for Asia-Pacific writes we expect real estate returns in Asia-Pacific to improve in 2013, driven by improving occupier demand and strong interest from domestic and APAC regional investors. It is time to take on some risk, but cautiously.

UK Real Estate Outlook (May 2013)
Over recent months the main economic and property market indicators have moved in line with our expectations. Chris Urwin, Global research manager explains how this strengthens the case for a turnaround in UK real estate in 2013 driven by yield-seeking investors moving from ‘prime’ to better-quality ‘secondary’ assets.

Convertibles: The benefits of staying active (May 2013)
The Global Convertibles Team covers how active management, a willingness to take off-benchmark positions and a notable competitive edge in the US convertibles market continue to drive the outperformance of the Aviva Investors Global Convertibles Fund. In the past 11 years, 80% of portfolio returns have derived from security selection, with around 60% of the portfolio currently allocated to non-benchmark positions. Meanwhile, having part of the team based in the US provides the portfolio with ready access to the US mid and small-cap arena – an area largely ignored by other European fund managers.

Asia Pacific Real Estate Outlook (May 2013)
Elysia Tse, SVP for Real Estate Investment Governance, Strategy and Research for Asia-Pacific, discusses the outlook for Asia Pacific real estate.

European Real Estate Debt: Tighter credit conditions create opportunities (May 2013)
Darren Sriharan, Global Real Estate Manager, writes the threat of a European banking crisis has receded but credit conditions remain tight, creating a financing gap in European commercial real estate. Yet banks are only a quarter of the way through their deleveraging programmes. This will weigh on capital values in the near term but the debt drought is creating opportunities for investors.

Global Real Estate Outlook (May 2013)
Chris Urwin, Global Research Manager - Real Estate writes Japan’s quantitative easing programme, a steady recovery in the US and an improving balance of risks all bode well for global real estate markets. Having been somewhat ignored by yield-hunting investors, good-quality real estate now looks relatively cheap.

Multi-asset Monthly Outlook (April 2013)
Nick Samouilhan and team highlights that exposure to equities has been reduced across their portfolios, driven by their more cautious short-term outlook for the asset class. The team is concerned that macroeconomic data has become less supportive and that equity markets in recent years have tended to weaken towards the middle of the year.

EMD: Hard currency versus local currency exposure (May 2013)
Thomas Williams, Client Portfolio Manager - Fixed Income explains, recent years have seen no slowing in the prestigious growth of both the hard and local currency emerging market bond segments. The total market is now five times the size it was a decade ago and growth shows few signs of slowing, he says.

From asset-based to risk-based: the changing role of hedge funds in pension fund portfolios (April 2013)
Shahid Ikram, observes in the past, equities were used as return generators while bonds were income generators. But with equities remaining volatile and bond yields at exceptionally low levels, schemes are increasingly employing hedge funds as part of a coherent risk-budgeting framework. This enables a clearer, more nuanced approach in which key decisions can be driven by high-conviction investment beliefs and logic rather than herd instinct and past performance, he says.

Fixed Income Review & Outlook Q1 2013
This quarterly document outlines the latest developments across bond markets and discusses the near-term outlook.

UK office market: ready to turn the corner (April 2013)
Chris Urwin, Global Research Manager, writes after steadily declining in recent years, regional office valuations now offer exceptional value compared to central London property and especially other income-producing assets such as corporate bonds. With the valuations of regional offices now poised to recover, they offer compelling potential for yield compression making them highly attractive assets on a risk-adjusted basis. 

US real estate recovery arrives in second-tier cities (April 2013)
The US economy is now recovering steadily and is likely to grow relatively strongly over the next five years. But while the S&P 500 climbed 9.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2013, US real estate remains relatively cheap. Darren Sriharan writes this could change as the recovery in commercial real estate moves from prime assets to higher-yielding secondary assets.

Multi-Asset Solutions - Outlook and positioning (March 2013)
Rally in equities and other risk assets shrugs aside Cypriot bailout debacle to test new highs.

Markets shrug off Cyprus imbroglio (April 2013)
Stewart Robertson explains why events in Cyprus are unlikely to trigger a major financial crisis elsewhere.

Positioning for the upswing: UK Secondary Real Estate set to outperform (April 2013)
Aviva Investors’ Real Estate Research Team believes that 2013 will mark a turning point for the UK real estate market. Chris Urwin writes, UK secondary assets currently look cheap relative to prime assets and are set to drive strong medium-term performance in the UK market. But not all secondary sectors will benefit equally, and investors will need a selective approach based on sound local knowledge.

The case for Irish commercial real estate (April 2013)
Ireland’s commercial real estate market may have been through the mill in the last five years but we expect a recovery to get underway this year. Darren Sriharan, Global Real Estate Analyst, writes that the occupier market appears to have bottomed out and the economy and the real estate investment market are now showing signs of steady improvement.

Emerging Market Corporate Bonds - Q&A with Aaron Grehan and Nancy Utterback (March 2013)
A Q&A from Aaron Grehan & Nancy Utterback explaining why AI is expanding its fixed income emerging market offering to include corporate bonds.

UK Budget 20th March 2013
Aviva Investors' initial reaction to the budget - from a fixed income perspective.

The Crisis in Cyprus - Russian Roulette (March 2013)
In this market edge Shamik Dhar and Stewart Robertson discuss possible solutions to the crisis in Cyprus.

EMD exposure for a world in recovery: a return to growth favour index-linked bonds (March 2013)
Inflation expectations in 2012 were moderated by sluggish global growth and weak commodity prices. Now, the outlook for global growth is more positive. Valentina Chen, Fund Manager EMD, outlines anticipating rising inflation expectations, which should result in higher return prospects for inflation-linked bonds.

Convertible Bonds, a compelling opportunity in a rising rate environment (March 2013)
Our latest Market Edge from convertibles analyst Brendan Ryan which highlights the great appeal of holding convertible bonds in a rising rate environment. As Ryan explains, the equity attributes of convertible bonds can offer valuable protection in inflationary, volatile environments that is lacking from most other forms of fixed income investment.

Harnessing Real Estate Debt (February 2013)
Fund manager James Tarry, examines the current opportunity set in the real estate debt market. With banks being forced to retreat, large numbers of new players are now targeting what has become a lender’s market. But as Tarry explains, not every manager who expressed an interest in this nascent market has been able to deliver.

European Real Estate - Reasons to Be (Cautiously) Cheerful (February 2013)
For the first time in a number of years we see reasons to be more positive about the outlook for European real estate. Risks to the euro zone have decreased significantly. The resulting rally in risk assets has left prime European real estate looking cheap relative to most income-producing asset classes.

Market ignores Moody's UK downgrade (February 2013)
Stewart Robertson, Senior Economist (UK and Europe) looks at the UK financial markets reaction to Moody’s decision to downgrade Britain’s credit rating.

Strategic Asset Allocation Outlook (February 2013)
The latest SAA Outlook from our Strategic Asset Allocation Team. In this report covering the fourth quarter of 2012, the team highlights how, with the exception of the US, global equity markets posted strong returns with a change of government helping Japan to be the best performing market of the quarter. Eurozone and emerging market bonds also rallied while UK gilts and US Treasuries retreated slightly.

UK Real Estate to recover in 2013 (February 2013)
Chris Urwin, Global Research manager - Real Estate, discusses the improving outlook for the UK market.

High Yield Market review and outlook (January 2013)
Leila Mahoney, Product Specialist Fixed Income, looks forward to another encouraging year for high yield bonds supported by low default rates, buoyant issuance levels and attractive income prospects with interest rates so low.

Global Real Estate Outlook (February 2013)
Defensive assets retain appeal but other opportunities are emerging, says Chris Urwin, Global Research Manager, Real estate.

Multi-Assets Solutions (January 2013)
Nick Samouilhan and team highlights how a combination of reasonable equity valuations, an improving macro backdrop and the supportive stance of global policymakers has led the team to increase risk across their portfolios.

Fixed Income Market review and Outlook Q4 2012
Q3 was dominated by a forceful statement of intent from European Central Bank president Mario Draghi to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro.

Economic and Investment Outlook (January 2013)
Global economic data has in recent weeks continued to strengthen and while sizeable concerns remain, the world economy looks likely to post solid growth in 2013, albeit driven once again by developing nations.

Unlocking the UK office market (December 2012)
Chris Urwin, Global Research Manager - Real Estate, highlights how signs of a concerted recovery should presage the outperformance

Global convertibles market on course for solid single digits in 2013 (December 2012)
Positive technical factors create a solid footing for the global convertibles market to provide a robust risk-adjusted return profile entering 2013.

Asia Pacific Real Estate Outlook (December 2012)
Elysia Tse, who leads the Real Estate Investment Governance, Strategy and Research teams for Asia Pacific, discusses the outlook for Asia Pacific real estate.

Don't get caught on the sidelines (December 2012)
Despite their surging popularity, high yield exchange traded funds (ETFs) have struggled to match the performance of actively managed funds. This highlights both the difficulties of replicating the market and the hidden costs that lie beneath their surface.

Have central banks flooded the engine? (December 2012)
Matthew Tatnell asks “Will further QE do more harm than good?”

Counter Revolution (December 2012)
‘Counter Revolution’ Trevor Green, Director and Head of UK Institutional Equities, discusses the challenges and opportunities facing the UK’s retailers.

Central bank action reduces tail risk ( November 2012)
While global growth remains in “muddle-through” territory, we believe there has been some improvement in the macroeconomic outlook.

Aviva Investors Property Trust (November 2012)
A property fund aiming to provide attractive long-term income returns and capital growth primarily through diverse exposure to commercial properties in the UK.

Italy's challenge. Is there a way out of the debt trap? (November 2012)
Mirko Cardinale, Head of Strategic Asset Allocation, explores alternative options for the future of Italy’s finances and the long-term implications of a range of economic and fiscal scenarios.

Surge in corporate bond issuance does not spell bad news for bond investors (November 2012)
Corporate bond issuance has hit record levels, yet total corporate borrowing activity remains subdued….. James Vokins, Fund manager, Corporate Bonds explains what is happening and the implications for fixed income portfolio.

No Thelma & Louise moment for US policymakers (November 2012)
US unlikely to drive off fiscal cliff whoever wins the race for the White House, says David Hillier, Senior US Economist

Counting the cost of Scottish independence (November 2012)
Although it’s not an immediate worry, the continuing steps towards Scottish independence could have profound consequences for the UK real estate market, says Chris Urwin, Global Research Manager - Real Estate.

Strategic Asset Allocation Portfolio Postioning and Outlook (November 2012)
In this latest report our Strategic Asset Allocation Team highlights how yield compression decreased most sustainable return assumptions in the third quarter thanks to the strong performance of both global equity and bond markets during the period.

Market Edge - Global Real Estate Outlook (October 2012)
Chris Urwin, Global Research Manager - Real Estate, discusses the outlook for real estate as near-tem risks of a financial crisis recede.

Multi-Asset Solutions (November 2012)
Markets pause after the rally, though we remain overweight equities as the economy improves.

The power of dynamic asset allocation (October 2012)
This paper presents a study of the predictive power of fundamental models to formulate strategic asset allocation. The results of this analysis provide strong evidence that asset allocators should disregard assumptions based on historical average returns and instead focus on well-proven relationships between long-term return trends and market fundamentals.

Peer pressure: Focusing on relative returns has real shortcomings for investors (October 2012)
In this piece Nick argues that the practice of incentivising fund managers to deliver relative returns is rarely in the best interests of the end investor and highlights how the arbitrary allocation bands that result can act to limit a manager’s effectiveness.

Split decisions: Managing multi-asset portfolios in a binary world (October 2012)
This piece offers our views on how today’s risk on/risk off market paradigm is impacting multi-asset portfolios and how best to cope with the new playing field that has emerged.

Always read the label: Multi-asset portfolios must be diversified, not just varied (October 2012)
Here Nick explains the risks of “optical diversification” and why asset allocators can never afford to ignore valuation fundamentals.

Tuning out the noise: Constructing portfolios despite information overload (October 2012)
In this piece Nick shares his views on how portfolio managers can best focus on the fundamentals despite the daily roar of market news flow

Blended for smoother returns: Why passive versus active is the wrong mindset (October 2012)
Don’t mistake active and passive fund management for being an either/or proposition. As Nick Samouilhan explains, the best portfolios will blend both approaches.

Modern fairytales: Equity investors live happily ever after (October 2012)
With stock markets booming in the closing decades of the 20th century it’s hardly surprising that so many investors still regard equities as the best bet for the long term. However, as history shows, equity investment is far from being a one-way bet.

Adding a fourth dimension: Incorporating themes into a multi-asset portfolio (October 2012)
Thematic investing provides a fourth lever for multi-asset portfolio managers to employ to improve potential returns and diversification. Nick Samouilhan offers a guide to getting started.

Changing times require a dynamic response (October 2012)
Mirko Cardinale, Head of Strategic Asset Allocation Research, makes a compelling case for a more dynamic approach. Despite strategic asset allocation remaining the primary source of returns in a multi-asset portfolio, too many scheme trustees are still mired by more traditional approaches that are out of step with the changing behaviour of modern markets, he says.

New players take the field in UK Real Estate debt market (October 2012)
With the UK banks in retreat, a new generation of specialist real estate lenders is emerging. This sea change brings with it opportunities for long-term investors such as DB pension schemes to access new and enduring sources of income.

Secondary UK Real Estate: Potential for Outperformance (October 2012)
UK secondary assets currently look cheap relative to prime assets. Could secondary be due for a period of outperformance from 2013?

Multi-Asset Solutions (October 2012)
Recent policy action may be the catalyst we have been waiting for to go overweight risk.

Surge in Global Convertibles Issues (September 2012)
Justin Craib-Cox of our Convertibles Team believes a return to healthier issuance volumes will increase the appeal of global convertibles strategies for many investors.

The power of expectations (September 2012)
Taking a view on consensus expectations is the key to successful stock selection says Trevor Green, Director and Head of UK Institutional Equities Aviva Investors

Climate change regulations: Opportunity or threat? (September 2012)
Richard Levis, Analyst for Real Estate and Strategy Research, Aviva Investors reports on the baseline risks and opportunities for commercial real estate, and looks at the drivers of energy efficiency improvements, associated costs and the implications for investment strategies.

US economy gains momentum (September 2012)
The US economy looks poised for further modest growth as it weathers external storms, says David Hillier, Senior US Economist, Aviva Investors

European Credit Market Focus (August 2012)
Nancy Utterback Senior Credit Analyst, Fixed Income , Aviva Investors, examines the implications of closer links between European peripheral sovereign and corporate bond ratings for companies and European bond markets.

Multi-Asset Solutions (August 2012)
The recent risk rally has stalled, with fears over euro zone contagion being joined by worries about the slowing global economy. The Multi Asset team and Aviva Investors strategy team cover why like others we ‘watch and wait’.

Five regulatory reforms that will change Real Estate Investment (July 2012)
The next few years will see the introduction of five key pieces of legislation which will profoundly change the way that stakeholders in the real estate investment market operate. Chris Urwin, Global Research Manager - Real Estate gives an overview of the new demands from a rapidly evolving regulatory environment.

Emerging market debt improvement in credit (May 2012)
Thomas Williams, Product Specialist, Emerging Market Debt Teams, covers the opportunities that EMD can give to diversify fixed income portfolios and improve yields.

Investment Edge - UK Property for income (July 2012)
Janet Measom, Senior product Specialist, Real Estate, discusses the potential of UK Real Estate to provide relatively secure and stable yields.

Market Edge - Corporate Credit (July 2012)
Nancy Utterback, Senior Credit Analyst, Aviva Investors, discusses how volatile market conditions are disrupting new issue flow.

Multi-Asset Solutions (July 2012)
Outlook and Positioning

Market Edge - Spain's real estate bubble (June 2012)
James Vokins, Fund Manager, Aviva Investors, talks about the Spanish real estate bubble and the bailout of the Spain’s banking sector.

Market Edge - Back to the Future (June 2012)
Stewart Robertson, Senior Economist for UK and Europe, Aviva Investors discusses how the euro zone crisis might unfold.

Market Edge - More Pain in Spain (June 2012)
Stewart Robertson, Senior Economist for UK and Europe, discusses the Spanish banking bail out and its implications.

The Case for Global Real Estate: The attraction of a global approach to real estate
Phil Redding & Phil Ellis

Greek Exit Scenarios: The implications for Europe and financial markets
Shamik Dhar & Stewart Robertson

Market Edge - Three scenarios for Europe (24 May 2012)
Will Greece exit the euro zone?

Investment Edge - Get Shorty (May 2012)
Benefit From Short Duration High Yield Bonds

Market Edge - Global real estate outlook (May 2012)
Chris Urwin, Global Research Manager - Real Estate, discusses the outlook in the real estate market as Europe enters recession

Market Edge - What is going on with UK inflation (April 2012)
The Bank of England’s inflation report produced a downward revision to growth and an upward revision to inflation for 2012

Market Edge - Why invest in credit now ? (April 2012) 
Credit opportunities in the current market environment

Market Edge - UK Budget (21 March 2012)
Our initial reaction to today's budget - from a fixed income perspective

Market Edge - Risk-rated funds without surprises (April 2012)
In this article we show how our risk-targeted multi-asset funds could help you consistently find appropriate investment solutions that meet clients’ attitude to risk in all market conditions.

Market Edge - Outlook for High Yield bonds (April 2012)
Q&A with Todd Youngberg, global investment director of fixed income and head of high-yield investments