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Market & Views
Thought leadership
We believe that harnessing investment intelligence is key to meeting your investment goals. We are committed to providing you with timely and insightful updates. In this area you will find published articles, market edge pieces covering topical issues, market updates, our own Investor Journal and videos with key speakers. We have also included a section on events that we are running and external conferences that we are attending or speaking at that you might find of use.
Investment Intelligence
The Dilution Effect: Constant or Time Varying? January 2013
Dynamic Market Opportunities and the Outperformance of Active Managers November 2012
The Power of Dynamic Asset Allocation October 2012
Videos
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Asia Pacific Real Estate Outlook
Elysia Tse, SVP for Real Estate Investment Governance, Strategy and Research for Asia-Pacific |
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All you need is growth: European economic outlook
Stewart Robertson, Senior Economist |
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Emerging Market Corporate Bonds
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| Anne-Sophie Girault, Head of Client Portfolio Management |
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Emerging market Inflation linked bonds |
| Anne-Sophie Girault, Head of Client Portfolio Management |
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Global Market Alpha |
| Dan James, Head of Global Market Alpha |
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Retail property the internet revolution gathers pace
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| Richard Levis, Real Estate Analyst |
| RED Who will finance UK real estate |
| Richard Levis, Real Estate Analyst |
Market Edge
European Real Estate Debt: Tighter credit conditions create opportunities (May 2013)
Darren Sriharan, Global Real Estate Manager, writes the threat of a European banking crisis has receded but credit conditions remain tight, creating a financing gap in European commercial real estate. Yet banks are only a quarter of the way through their deleveraging programmes. This will weigh on capital values in the near term but the debt drought is creating opportunities for investors.
Global Real Estate Outlook (May 2013)
Chris Urwin, Global Research Manager - Real Estate writes Japan’s quantitative easing programme, a steady recovery in the US and an improving balance of risks all bode well for global real estate markets. Having been somewhat ignored by yield-hunting investors, good-quality real estate now looks relatively cheap.
Multi-asset Monthly Outlook (April 2013)
Nick Samouilhan and team highlights that exposure to equities has been reduced across their portfolios, driven by their more cautious short-term outlook for the asset class. The team is concerned that macroeconomic data has become less supportive and that equity markets in recent years have tended to weaken towards the middle of the year.
EMD: Hard currency versus local currency exposure (May 2013)
Thomas Williams, Client Portfolio Manager - Fixed Income explains, recent years have seen no slowing in the prestigious growth of both the hard and local currency emerging market bond segments. The total market is now five times the size it was a decade ago and growth shows few signs of slowing, he says.
From asset-based to risk-based: the changing role of hedge funds in pension fund portfolios (April 2013)
Shahid Ikram, observes in the past, equities were used as return generators while bonds were income generators. But with equities remaining volatile and bond yields at exceptionally low levels, schemes are increasingly employing hedge funds as part of a coherent risk-budgeting framework. This enables a clearer, more nuanced approach in which key decisions can be driven by high-conviction investment beliefs and logic rather than herd instinct and past performance, he says.
Fixed Income Review & Outlook Q1 2013
This quarterly document outlines the latest developments across bond markets and discusses the near-term outlook.
UK office market: ready to turn the corner (April 2013)
Chris Urwin, Global Research Manager, writes after steadily declining in recent years, regional office valuations now offer exceptional value compared to central London property and especially other income-producing assets such as corporate bonds. With the valuations of regional offices now poised to recover, they offer compelling potential for yield compression making them highly attractive assets on a risk-adjusted basis.
US real estate recovery arrives in second-tier cities (April 2013)
The US economy is now recovering steadily and is likely to grow relatively strongly over the next five years. But while the S&P 500 climbed 9.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2013, US real estate remains relatively cheap. Darren Sriharan writes this could change as the recovery in commercial real estate moves from prime assets to higher-yielding secondary assets.
Multi-Asset Solutions - Outlook and positioning (March 2013)
Rally in equities and other risk assets shrugs aside Cypriot bailout debacle to test new highs.
Markets shrug off Cyprus imbroglio (April 2013)
Stewart Robertson explains why events in Cyprus are unlikely to trigger a major financial crisis elsewhere.
Positioning for the upswing: UK Secondary Real Estate set to outperform (April 2013)
Aviva Investors’ Real Estate Research Team believes that 2013 will mark a turning point for the UK real estate market. Chris Urwin writes, UK secondary assets currently look cheap relative to prime assets and are set to drive strong medium-term performance in the UK market. But not all secondary sectors will benefit equally, and investors will need a selective approach based on sound local knowledge.
The case for Irish commercial real estate (April 2013)
Ireland’s commercial real estate market may have been through the mill in the last five years but we expect a recovery to get underway this year. Darren Sriharan, Global Real Estate Analyst, writes that the occupier market appears to have bottomed out and the economy and the real estate investment market are now showing signs of steady improvement.
Published articles
Fine Tuning Fixed Income
Why fixed income is the engine of pensions portfolios. Pensions Week - 28 January 2013
Building Brazil
The panel discusses areas of interest for schemes, the future of infrastructure, and what factors to consider before adopting emerging markets debt.
Professional Pensions - 29 November 2012
Why RED is the new green...
Tammy McPherson, business development director at Aviva Investors, explains how trustees can secure income streams by taking a closer look at real estate debt.
Professional Pensions - 29 November 2012
Opportunities in secondary
UK secondary real estate currently looks cheap relative to prime assets. Could it deliver good returns for trustees from 2013? Phil Redding investigates.
Engaged Investor - November / December 2012
Real estate income without volatility
Lower-risk real estate can play a valuable role in improving returns and helping align scheme assets and liabilities, says Phil Redding.
Pensions Week - 19 November 2012
The Trustee Confidence Index
The trustee role is one of great responsibility and difficulty. Recent research from a partnership between Pensions Week and Aviva Investors describes what it feels like to be a trustee in these current economic times.
Pensions Week - 29 October 2012
Investors Journal
Demographics & Asset Prices; no need for panic
Far from precipitating a crash in asset prices as many have predicted, the arrival of the baby-boom generation at retirement could actually push up bond prices in some mature economies. As Mirko Cardinale, Head of Strategic Asset Allocation explains, Aviva’s research suggests that the “demographic time bomb” previously thought to be awaiting global markets is more likely to be a damp squib.
The impact of the internet on retail property
The change brought to retail by the internet revolution is accelerating with the evolution of mobile technology, online marketing and distribution systems. Customer journeys are changing as researching and ordering goods online becomes easier and cheaper and delivery options improve. Many store-based retailers are being forced to adapt their business models and property requirements, but physical retail space will remain important in these new multi-channel strategies.
Infrastructure Investing in the UK and Continental Europe
Darren Sriharan, Global Real Estate Analyst, describes what is meant by infrastructure and summarises its key features as an asset class, identifies the opportunities within the UK and continental Europe and examines how governments intend to support infrastructure investment in the future.
Italy’s challenge: is there a way out of the debt trap?
Mirko Cardinale, Head of Strategic Asset Allocation, explores in detail alternative options for the future of Italy’s finances and the long-term implications of a range of economic and fiscal scenarios.
Is Short-Termism a Problem in Investing and, if so, What Should Be Done About It?
Inflation is a major threat to the future value of any investment and, as with any risk, preparing for it is an essential part of sound portfolio management. Dr Jean-Francois Boulier Chief Executive Officer, Aviva Investors, Europe and Denis Lehman, Head of Fixed Income funds, OPCVM funds, Aviva Investors,discuss.